Normally, I think Republicans tend to be too skeptical of pollsters. Down the stretch in 2008 and 2010, I found most of the polls from reputable pollsters (as opposed to newspapers and colleges) to be on the mark. That hasn’t been the case in this cycle. Once you get past Gallup and Rasmussen, most of the other big name pollsters seem to inexplicably be using a partisan breakdown similar to the numbers from 2008 — which was a historically good year for the Democrats. Of course, since then, there has been a historically good year for the GOP; so there doesn’t seem to be any reason whatsoever to assume that Democrats will have a +7 margin over the GOP like they did in 2008. Yet, most pollsters seem to be running on the assumption that the numbers are going to be almost that good for the Democrats, if not BETTER.
Well, the invaluable Jim Geraghty discussed this issue with Republican pollster John McLaughlin in order to try to get a sense of what’s going on. Here are the key paragraphs.
On what a realistic partisan breakdown would look like: The 2004 national exit polls showed an even partisan turnout and Bush won 51-48. Had it been the +4 Democratic edge of 2000, John Kerry would have been President. 2008 was a Democratic wave that gave them a +7 partisan advantage. 2010 was a Republican edge. There’s no wave right now. There are about a dozen swing states where in total millions of voters who voted in 2008 for Obama are gone or have not voted since. There are also hundreds of thousands of voters in each of several swing states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and others who voted from rural, exurban or suburban areas in 2004 for Bush who did not vote in 2008, because they were not excited by McCain or thought he would lose. They are currently planning to vote mainly as a vote against President Obama.”
What Obama and his allies are doing now: “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR (Interactive Voice Response) polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are “not enthusiastic” to vote or non voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30 percent range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. We’ll see a lot more of this. Then there’s the debate between calling off a random digit dial of phone exchanges vs a known sample of actual registered voters. Most polls favoring Obama are random and not off the actual voter list. That’s too expensive” for some pollsters.
Don’t let the Obama campaign game you, folks. Romney is right in the thick of this race.
The Obama plan is to destroy America. Don’t let him do that to us. As Clint Eastwood said, “If he has not done the job, vote him out of office.” AND UNEMPLOYMENT IS HIGHER
Obama scares me.
Even though Obama has been absent for 220 days in Wisconsin, and no Republican has won there since Reagan in 1984, Obama will be there on Saturday for three fund-raising events–a sign political experts say is an indication of a tight race, even though Obama won by 14 points four years ago. In Wisconsin and all over America, people are tired of the president’s attacks and false promises. The State Department acknowledged that Obama is spending $70,000/day of taxpayer money in Pakistan for television ads apologizing to the middle eastern countries for this low budget movie trailer exercising a right of free speech and demonstrating a position of weakness from the US. The Libyan president told us that this was premeditated. We had 3 days notice and we did not beef up security. The lying by the president is being used to cover up his bad policies.
The one point you left out is that these partisan polls also give the left an excuse to claim fraud when their candidate loses. “But the polls showed our guy 1% ahead for the last three months, that MUST mean they cheated!”
I was becoming discouraged About the poor showing in the polls for Romney, but this article has made me realize that things are not like they appear. I am not in the Tea Party, but I support what the Tea Party is contributing to this election. Our country needs to replace Obama if we want to keep our American Way of Life.
american’s had better wake up!!! obama is working on his dictator position! and america is his target!! pretty soon we will become a socialist/communist country!!! get out the vote!!! vote romney/ryan 2012
YOU ARE SO RIGHT ON, HAVE YOU READ THE BOOK, FOOL ME TWICE!
IF NOT, READ IT, YOU WILL BE SO FRIGHTENED, FOR OUR FUTURE & COUNTRY!
I too was very puzzled at the MSM stories of the poll results. Then I looked at Skeweddedpolls.com !!
Please look this up. You will see the light.
In orthodox Marxist dogma, the end (electing Obama) will always justify the means no matter how hidious, bizarre, untrue, or bloody. For example, what really did happen aboard Mrs. Romney’s plane the other day? I would be shocked, but not surprised, if someone in the Obama administration already knows the answer. Just sayin’………….
I don’t believe the polls. Frankly.
When democrats outnumber republicans, and registered voters don’t equal likely voters, you know the polls are skewed. What person under 50 even has a landline anymore? No. Not many. Only folks that have to have a landline have one. Everyone else already has a cell. Think about who is being ‘polled’. And we, cell phone people, aren’t being polled. We are online. We are informed and we have to do more to inform and engage people. We do.
ATTENTION AMERICANS!!
THIS IS A CRUCIAL TIME IN AMERICA, PLEASE GET INFORMED ABOUT WHAT THAT COMMIE IN THE WHITE HOUSE TRUE AGENDA IS ALL ABOUT. WATCH FOX NEWS FOR THE REAL, TRUE & BLANCED INFO. IF HE GETS IN AGAIN, WE CAN ALL KISS AMERICA AS WE KNOW IT …GOOD BYE
WE BETTER BE SCARE ,DAMN SCARED, I CAN’T SLEEP AT NIGHT I’M SO SCARED FOR OUR COUNTRY!! EVERY TRUE AMERICAN BETTER GET OUT & VOTE ,LET YOUR VOICE BE HEARD!!!